Imgħaxijiet baxxi

Ix-xenarju ilu hekk u donnu mhux se jinbidel malajr: misjuqa mill-programm ta’ “quantitative easing” tal-Bank Ċentrali Ewropew, li bih dal-Bank qed jixtri kull xahar biljuni ta’ ċedoli ta’ self tal-gvernijiet, l-imgħaxijiet fuq flus mislufa huma baxxi ħafna ħafna. Dan messu qed iħeġġeġ lill-impriżi u lill-individwi biex jissellfu l-flus ħalli jinvestu fi proġetti. Imma kemm fl-Istati Uniti u kemm fl-Ewropa, ir-rata ta’ investimenti baqgħet l-aktar baxxa storikament minn żmien twil ilu.
Sadattant, ħafna banek qed jinqarsu mit-tnaqqis fid-dħul tagħhom ta’ self, la l-imgħax fuqu naqas. Uħud, fosthom il-kbar, qed jaffaċċjaw dwejjaq finanzjarji ġodda. Barra minn hekk, il-banek Ewropej qed jilmentaw li bir-regoli ġodda li jinsabu deħlin qed ikollhom iġorru piżijiet doppji. Ir-regoli jimponulhom jaħżnu aktar riżervi ta’ kapital fil-kontijiet tagħhom, ħalli jkollhom biex jilqgħu għall-maltemp.
Il-Bank Ċentrali Ewropew isostni li taħti għall-imgħaxijiet baxxi u n-nuqqas ta’ investimenti l-klima ekonomika li baqgħet inċerta. Mingħajr il-ħidma tiegħu, il-qagħda kienet tkun agħar.
Wieħed jibqa’ bl-impressjoni li f’dal-qasam, ninsabu bla pjan effettiv.
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IT-TWEGĦIR TA’ ĦADDIEĦOR
Konvint li t-turiżmu jinsab qawwi bħala ħidma ekonomika fostna għax Malta qed tiġbed turisti lejha bl-attrazzjonijiet tagħha.
Xorta waħda, element fil-milja ta’ żjarat li qed nirċievu ġej mit-twegħir ta’ ħaddieħor. It-Turkija, l-Eġittu, it-Tuniżija fost oħrajn qed jaffaċċjaw problemi ta’ sigurtà li jbiegħdu minnhom lit-turisti. Ma nistgħux ninnegaw li qed nieħdu vantaġġ minn dil-ħaġa.
Għalhekk tajjeb li jkollna studju “biered” u professjonali dwar kemm hu kbir dal-vantaġġ. Anke jekk hu ċkejken, tajjeb li nkunu nafu kemm jaħbat.
B’hekk, inkunu nistgħu nippjanaw il-passi li jmiss biex insostnu lit-turiżmu tagħna. Qatt ma jaqblilna nieħduh “for granted” – lilu u lil setturi li jinzertaw sejrin tajjeb.
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SOĊJALISTI SPANJOLI
Ma narax kif il-kriżi li għaddej minnha bħalissa l-Partit Soċjalista Spanjol tista’ tittaffa f’qasir żmien.
Hemm talanqas erba’ dilemmi fondamentali quddiem is-soċjalisti Spanjoli: il-fatt li għadhom ittimbrati b’xi mod mar-riċessjoni kbira li għaddiet Spanja minnha fl-aħħar żminijiet tat-tmexxija tagħhom u wara; ir-rifjut qawwi li jeżisti fost l-aqwa segwaċi tagħhom li jissieħbu fi gvern jew jagħtu l-appoġġ lill-Popolari mmexxija mill-Prim Ministru Rajoy, li mhux bla raġun huma mitqiesa bħala partit korrott; l-isfida kbira għat-tmexxija tax-xellug li qed joffru l-“populisti” ta’ Podemos, li faqqsu mill-protesti fit-toroq kontra l-awsterità ta’ Rajoy; u n-nuqqas ta’ qbil bejn il-barunijiet tal-Partit Soċjalista, in parti għal raġunijiet ta’ ambizzjoni personali.
Dwejjaq tara lil dal-partit, li kien fil-quddiem tat-tiġdid soċjalista tan-nofsinhar tal-Ewropa wara d-deċennji ta’ frankiżmu fi Spanja, mifni b’dal-mod.

English Version – Low interest rates

It has been an unchanging scenario for quite a while and will not change soon: driven by the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme, by which the Bank is buying every month billions of government bonds, interest rates on borrowings remain very very low. This should have encouraged firms and individuals to borrow money to invest in new projects. However both in the US and in Europe, the investment rate remains historically the lowest over a very long period.

Meanwhile, many banks are being squeezed as income on their lending has shrunk, since interest payments on it have declined. Some, among which the largest, are facing new financial difficulties. In addition, European banks are complaining in a big way about new rules that are being introduced, which they claim will double their burdens. The rules will require them to increase the capital reserves on their balance sheets, so as to strengthen their financial profile for when times are bad.

The European Central Bank insists that quantitative easing is not to blame for low interest rates and the investment dearth; the real culprit is the economic situation, still dicey. Without the ECB’s intervention, the situation would be worse.

Inevitably, one remains with the impression that in this sector, we lack an effective plan.

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The sorrows of others

I am convinced that as an economic activity, tourism is in good shape here because Malta’s attractions on their own steam, are successfully attracting tourists.

Even so, an element contributing to current tourist numbers follows from the sorrows of others. Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia among others, have experienced security problems which put off tourists. We cannot deny having benefitted from this situation.

So, it makes sense to carry out a “cool” professional study in order to estimate the size of such a benefit. Even if it is minor in scope, let’s be clear about how small it is.

In this way, plans can be laid to ensure that the tourism sector does not falter. We should never take things for granted – and the same applies to other economic sectors that happen to be performing well.

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Spanish socialists

It is difficult to see how the crisis in which the Spanish socialist party (PSOE) finds itself, can be overcome in quick time.

Spanish socialists still need to find a satisfactory resolution to at least four fundamental dilemmas: the fact that they are still associated somehow with the big recession into which Spain entered during the final year of their last administration and later; the strong rejection by their grass roots of any proposal to join a coalition with, or give support to the Popular Party led by Prime Minister Rajoy, which not without reason, is considered as a corrupt party; the big challenge regarding which party is to take over the leadership of the left, mounted by the “populists” of Podemos, which grew out of the street protests against Rajoy’s austerity programmes; and the disagreements between socialist barons, fuelled in part by personal ambitions.

What a pity to see the PSOE, a protagonist in the modernisation of socialisim in southern Europe after decades of francoism, weakened in this way.