Ftit sibtha impressjonanti l-kritika li l-Oppożizzjoni Nazzjonalista għamlet tal-baġit u tad-direzzjoni ekonomika attwali. Ħaġa ċara li meta l-ekonomija tkun għaddejja b’rankatura, kif qed jiġri f’Malta bħalissa, kwalunkwe Oppożizzjoni se ssib ruħha mxekkla f’li tista’ tikkummenta.

Biss xorta tista’ tagħmel kritika valida. Forsi mhix se tinftiehem minn Ċikku l-poplu għall-ewwel. Imma tħejji l-bażi għal x’jista’ jinqala’ wara.

Gvern li jara l-ekonomija qed tespandi jista’ jitwebbel b’miżuri li jservu biex jibbrejkjaw l-attività fi ftit taż-żmien. Hekk pereżempju ġara lit-tieni amministrazzjoni ta’ Fenech Adami meta bejn l-1992 u l-1994, l-ekonomija kienet qed iddur tajjeb. Fuq l-ottimiżmu msensel minn dan l-iżvilupp, il-gvern għaġġel idaħħal it-taxxa tal-VAT ftit wara li bla ħtieġa, kien żvaluta l-lira Maltija.

Ftit fehmu t-twissijiet li għamilna dak iż-żmien mill-Oppożizzjoni. Sakemm fi żmien qasir ħafna, il-bnazzi nbidel f’maltemp.

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Aktar spiża, anqas investiment

Hemm periklu li anki llum, l-istess ottimiżmu — li f’limiti tajba, hu meħtieġ — iwassal għal żbalji jekk tiddeffes kunfidenza żejda. M’għandix dubju li l-gvern jaf b’dan, u qed joqgħod b’seba’ għajnejn biex ma jidħol fl-ebda sqaq, anke jekk l-Oppożizzjoni baqgħet fjakka fil-mod kif żvolġiet il-kritika ekonomika tagħha.

Żminijiet tajba jagħtu l-impressjoni li n-nefqa rikorrenti tista’ tiżdied b’rata qawwija bla wisq problemi. Dan ikun minnu biss sa ċertu punt. Il-problema tqum meta spiża rikorrenti ġdida ma tistax titħassar għal li ġej: sena wara l-oħra se tibqa’ titfaċċa u tikber. Meta l-ekonomija jew id-dħul tal-gvern inaqqsu mir-ritmu tagħhom — kif żgur se jiġri xi darba jew oħra — il-piż ta’ dik iż-żieda jibqa’ hemm.

Aktar u aktar jekk in-nefqa rikorrenti tkun tielgħa b’rata anqas minn tal-investiment publiku.

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Ruma u l-immigrazzjoni

Artiklu interessanti dwar kif ir-Rumani kienu jmexxu l-politika tal-immigrazzjoni tagħhom deher fil-“Wall Street Journal”. Kitbitu Mary Beard, waħda mill-aqwa speċjalisti tad-dinja Rumana. Skont hi, r-Rumani kienu jaċċettaw lil kulħadd, bħala immigranti u refuġjati, fl-imperu tagħhom.

Kienu lesti jagħtu ċ-ċittadinanza Rumana bl-aktar mod miftuħ. Darba minnhom, b’deċiżjoni waħda, żiedu ċ-ċittadini Rumani mal-Imperu kollu bi 30 fil-mija. B’dal-mod, skont Beard, it-Rumani sostnew għal sekli twal imperu stabbli li minkejja l-kobor tiegħu, rnexxielu jibqa’ prosperu u qawwi.

Biss l-istorja Rumana għandha firxa ta’ kważi żewġ millenji. L-immigrazzjoni ġieli kienet ukoll sors ta’ instabbiltà kbira madwar il-fruntieri tar-Rumani. Il-gwerra Gallika per eżempju skattat minħabba l-immigrazzjonijiet ta’ tribujiet li avvanzaw lejn il-provinċja Rumana lil hinn mill-Alpi. Talanqas hekk irrakkonta Ġulju Ċesri, li mbagħad uża l-immigrazzjonijiet bħala skuża biex ikabbar il-fruntieri tat-territorju Ruman.

English Version – Critique

I was hardly impressed by the Nationalist Opposition’s critique of the 2016 budget and of the present economic direction. It is clear that when the economy is on a roll, as is happening now in Malta, any Opposition will find itself constrained in the comments it can make.

However the Opposition should seek to present a thorough critique, even if it might not be well understood by the man in the street. It still would prepare the ground for what could happen subsequently.

For a government on top of an expansionary economy faces the temptation of adopting measures which could eventually brake economic activity in the short to medium term. This for instance happened under the second Fenech Adami administration between 1992 and 1994, when the economy was performing quite well. On the back of the optimism this generated, the government rushed to introduce VAT just after it had needlessly devalued the Maltese lira.

Few understood the warnings we then made from Opposition, till in a very short time, the prevailing fine weather became stormy.

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Greater expense, less investment

The danger is that even today, a sense of optimism – which itself within limits is necessary – could foster mistakes if it generates overconfidence. I am certain the government is aware of this and will ensure that it won’t let too much confidence lead it into a cul-de-sac, even if the Opposition continues to perform poorly when reviewing government positions critically.

Good times encourage the perception that recurrent expenditures can grow without too much trouble. This can only be true up to a certain point. Problems arise when, let us say, additional recurrent expenditures cannot be reversed in future; year in year out they will recur and increase. If growth in the economy or in government income decelerates – as will surely happen at some stage – the burdens of the additional expenses will be keenly felt.

They would be felt even more keenly should recurrent expenditures be meanwhile rising at a higher rate than public investment.

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Rome and immigraton

“The Wall Street Journal” featured an interesting article by Mary Beard about how the Romans managed their immigration policies. Beard, who is one of the best scholars specializing in the history of Rome, wrote that the Romans would accept within their empire all arriving immigrants and refugees.

They were prepared to grant Roman citizenship in the most open manner. At one point, with a single decision, the number of citizens in the Roman empire increased by 30 per cent. On these lines, according to Beard, the Romans ran for long centuries a stable empire which huge as it was, remained prosperous and powerful.

However Roman history stretches over about two millenia. Immigration would sometimes be a source of significant instability at the borders of the empire. The Gallic wars for example were triggered by the migration of tribes moving towards the Roman province established on the other side of the Alps. At least that’s how Julius Caesar framed his account of what happened; he then used the threats posed by migration as an excuse to extend the frontiers of Roman territory.

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