Sondaġġi

Is-sondaġġi għadhom jiswew għal xi ħaġa?
Fl-aħħar elezzjoni ġenerali tar-Renju Unit ipprevedew kollox ħażin.
L-istess u b’mod ħafna aktar perikoluż, dwar ir-riżultat tar-referendum tal-Brexit. Sal-aħħar, ħlief meta għal ġimgħa u nofs is-sondaġġi ħabbru li tal-Brexit irkupraw, huma kienu qed jgħidu li l-kamp tal-Ibqa’ kien fuq quddiem. Imbagħad ġara dak li ġara.
Storja simili seħħet fil-każ tal-elezzjoni Spanjola l-Ħadd li għadda. Fl-aħħar ġimgħat is-sondaġġi baqgħu juru li l-partit tax-xellug-xellug Podemos magħqud mal-partit tax-xellug eks-komunista kien se jsir it-tieni partit ta’ Spanja. Is-sondaġġi meħuda mal-votanti ħierġa mill-post tal-votazzjoni komplew jsostnu din l-istorja sa tard billejl.
Imbagħad ħarġu r-riżultati u Podemos baqa’ fit-tielet post, anzi naqqas mill-voti.
Għaliex dan kollu hu importanti?
Għax is-sondaġġi saru l-boxxla tal-politika. Bħal fil-marketing li kont nitgħallem u wara ngħallem ilu ħafna, l-istrateġiji politiċi jitfasslu l-ħin kollu skont fejn jonfoħ ir-riħ tas-sondaġġi. Dawn għamlu żmien jipprovdu għodda tajba għal suċċessi elettorali kbar u żgħar.
Jekk dil-boxxla issa qed titħawwad, kemm se jkunu mħawda aktar id-deċiżjonijiet politiċi li jittieħdu skont il-perspettivi li tiftaħ hi?
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Lord Hill
Wieħed mill-ewwel “feruti” tal-Brexit kien il-Kummissarju Ewropew Lord Hill, rappreżentant tar-Renju Unit. Minnufih wara li ħareġ ir-riżultat tar-referendum, fil-Parlament Ewropew u barra minnu beda jissemma kif rappreżentanti Britanniċi kellhom jibqgħu lura minn kif jieħdu sehem fl-attivitajiet tal-Unjoni Ewropea la kienu se joħorġu.
Hill irriżenja minnufih. Kien responsabbli mis-servizzi finanzjarji, post li l-gvern tar-Renju Unit kien ried għalih, minħabba l-importanza tas-settur fl-ekonomija Brittanika. Hill idderieġa dan il-qasam mingħajr ma jdoqq it-trombi, jevita l-kontroversji imma attent għad-dettallji importanti fil-bidliet li kellu jwettaq.
Ma kienx jogħġob lil uħud mir-rappreżentanti “kontinentali” – kienu jarawh liberali wisq. Il-mod kif iħares l-affarijiet kien iqarreb lejn kif bħala Malta, kien jaqblilna li l-Unjoni Ewropea tħares lejn is-servizzi finanzjarji.
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Deputati Soċjalisti
Inżammet laqgħa tal-grupp tas-soċjalisti u d-demokratiċi fil-Parlament Ewropew qabel plenarja li kellha tiddiskuti l-Brexit. L-aktar li ġibdu attenzjoni kienu d-deputati Laburisti Ingliżi.
Ix-xogħol tagħhom riesaq lejn tmiemu. Dehru kommossi. Iddispjaċieni għalihom.
Ħafna minnhom huma/kienu dedikati għal xogħolhom u jwettquh bil-galbu. Kont napprezzahom ħafna meta ħdimna mill-qrib, anke jekk mhux dejjem kont naqbel magħhom, speċjalment f’diskussjoni dwar it-tassazzjoni fil-qafas Ewropew.
Il-grupp tas-soċjalisti u d-demokratiċi se jintlaqat ħażin mit-tluq tar-Renju Unit. Waqt li l-konservattivi taħt Cameron kien telqu mill-Partit tal-Popolari Ewropej, il-Laburisti Ingliżi baqgħu mas-soċjalisti u d-demokratiċi. Bit-tluq tad-deputati Brittaniċi, il-Popolari jibqgħu fejn kienu bħala saħħa parlamentari, imma l-S & D se jnaqqsu.

English Version – Polls

Do polls mean anything any more?

In the last general elections in the UK, they forecasted everything the wrong way round.

Similarly and more dangerously, when it came to the results of the Brexit referendum. Up to the end, excepting when for a week and a half, the polls announced that Brexit was catching up, they were all the time concluding that the Remain camp was ahead. Then, what had to happen, happened.

Another story of the samekind happened in the Spanish elections of last Sunday. For the past weeks, polls had been showing that the left-left party Podemos, allied with the ex-communist left, would become the second largest Spanish political party. Exit polls continued to confirm this story up to well into the night.

When the results were finalised, Podemos remained in third place, and its share of the vote had declined.

Why should this be of interest?

Because polls have become the compass used in political affairs. As in the marketing that I used to study and teach long years ago, political strategies are being continuously mapped according to the shifts of opinion as registered by the polls. For a long while, these were a good tool by which to secure electoral successes, big and small.

If this compass is now getting things wrong, how more confused will be the political decisions taken on the basis of the perspectives it provides?

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Lord Hill

A first casualty of Brexit was European Commissioner Lord Hill, nominated by the UK. As soon as the Brexit referendum results were published, at the European Parliament and outside, remarks started being made about how UK representatives needed now to stay back from participating in EU activities since they will be leaving.

Immediately, Hill resigned. He was in charge of financial services, a post that the UK government had wanted for itself, due to the importance of this sector in the British economy. Hill managed his dossiers without blowing trumpets. He avoided controversies but was closely attentive to important details in the changes he wanted to implement.

Some “continental” representatives did not like him. They considered him too liberal. His way of considering matters was quite close to the manner by which it made sense for us in Malta, that the EU consider the regulation of financial matters.

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Socialist MEPs

A meeting was held of the socialist and democratic grouping at the European Parliament prior to the plenary meeting of the Parliament which was to discuss Brexit. British Labour Party MEPs got the bulk of the attention.

Their mandate will shortly cease. They were emotional. I sympathised with them.

Many are/were dedicated to EP work and carried it out assiduously. When working close to them, I could not but appreciate their efforts, even if I did not always agree with them, especially in discussions about taxation policies in the EU context.

The S & D group will be badly hit by the UK’s withdrawal. The Tories under Cameron had left the European Popular Party, while Labour’s MEPs stayed affiliated with the S & D. With the departure of UK MEPs, the EPP will retain its parliamentary strength, the S&D will lose some of it.