If the agreement is rolled on, Eurozone states will have carried forward a huge non performing loan on their balance sheet with no need at present to write it down. However, the likelihood is that the problem will recur not too far into the future.
For this reason, I have huge doubts as to whether the agreement makes technical sense for all concerned, and whether it will make economic and social sense for Greece. It will certainly cause political turmoil there. The humiliating way by which Greece has effectively ceded a substantial part of its sovereignty to its “partners” might in other days, have provoked a military coup. I am told however that the Greek army today no longer subscribes to the view that it is the ultimate bastion of national dignity when the political class fails to deliver.
Greece is being forced to carry out too many radical initiatives too fast and I cannot see that the public administrative machine or the private sector will be up to it. This has got nothing to do with trust.
In economic terms, the neo-liberal prescriptions that are being forced through are unlikely to deliver jobs in the short to medium term; that at least has been the lesson of Portugal and Ireland. In fact, given the privatisation deadlines that are being set, the risks of carpet bagging are bound to grow.
Meanwhile social strains will also grow since once again, it will be the middle to lower income strata of the Greek population which will bear the load.
Clearly euro zone governments were most anxious to maintain internal coherence between them, even if only on the surface, and to sustain the dogma that euro membership is irreversible, while holding onto their pound of flesh. They seem to have succeeded in this but probably at quite significant longterm damage to the euro “brand”.

IL-FTEHIM MAL-GREĊJA
Jekk il-ftehim se jibqa’ għaddej, l-istati taż-żona ewro se jkunu qed iniżżlu self fil-bilanċi tagħhom li ma jistax jitwettaq, mingħajr il-ħtieġa li għalissa jiktbuh. Madanakollu, fil-futur qarib aktarx li l-problema se terġa’ tinqala’.
Għal din ir-raġuni, għandi dubji serji jekk dan il-ftehim jagħmilx sens tekniku għal dawk kollha kkonċernati. Għandi dubji wkoll jagħmilx sens ekonomiku u soċjali għall-Greċja. Żgur li hemmhekk se jqajjem terremot politiku. Il-mod umiljanti li bih il-Greċja ċediet parti sostanzjali mis-sovranita’ tagħha lil ‘imsieħba’ tagħha, fi żminijiet oħra aktarx li dan kien iqajjem kolp ta’ stat militari. Ġejt mgħarraf pero’ li l-armata Griega llum ma għadhiex temmen li hija l-aħħar sinsla tad-dinjita’ tan-nazzjon meta l-klassi politika ma twettaqx.’

Il-Greċja qed tkun imġiegħla twettaq inizjattivi radikali malajr wisq. Ma nistax nara kif il-magna tal-amministrazzjoni pubblika u s-settur privat se jirnexxielhom iżommu dan il-pass. Dan kollu ma għandu xejn x’jaqsam ma’ li tafda jew ma tafdax. F’termini ekonomiċi, l-ordnijiet neo-liberali li qed ikunu sfurzati fuq il-Greċja aktarx mhux se jirnexxielhom joħolqu l-impjiegi, kemm fl-immedjat u kemm fil-futur; tal-inqas dik kienet il-lezzjoni fil-Portugall u tal-Irlanda. Filfatt, minħabba d-‘deadlines’ li ngħataw għall-privatizzazzjoni, se jikbru r-riskji li se jkun hemm min japprofitta ruħu mis-sitwazzjoni.

Intant it-tbatijiet soċjali wkoll se jkomplu jikbru għaliex, għal darb’oħra, il-klassi ta’ taħt u dik medja tal-popolazzjoni Griega se terfa’ t-toqol kollu.

Huwa ċar li l-mexxejja taż-żona ewro kienu anzjużi biex iżommu għaqda bejniethom, anki jekk b’mod superfiċjali biss, biex iżommu ħajja d-dogma li sħubija fl-ewro hija irriversibbli, u fl-istess ħin jieħdu dak li hu tagħhom akkost ta’ kollox. Jidher li rnexxielhom f’dan kollu, imma probabbilment se jkun ta’ dannu għat-‘timbru’ tal-ewro għal tul ta’ żmien.