Jekk qed nifhem tajjeb it-tbassir dwar il-prezz tal-enerġija għaż-żmien li ġej, it-tendenza hi lejn għoli moderat. Imma l-provista tal-enerġija tinfirex fuq diversi prodotti, minn faħam, sa żejt, sa qawwa ta’ riħ u xemx, sa nukleari. Mhux fl-oqsma kollha l-prezzijiet jiżdiedu jew jonqsu bl-istess mod.
Il-lanja ta’ tkabbir ekonomiku fl-Ewropa u f’żoni oħra qed tgħin biex iżżid fit-tendenza għall-għoli fil-prezz tal-enerġija – li forsi mhix ħaġa ħażina. Fl-aħħar sentejn, l-ilment fl-Ewropa kien li l-prezzijiet mhumiex jogħlew biżżejjed. Ħtiġilhom jersqu aktar lejn it-2 fil-mija li ssettja l-Bank Ċentrali Ewropew f’linja mal-kundizzjonijiet tal-Patt ta’ Stabbiltà u Tkabbir.
Dan ma ġarax, minkejja l-biljuni ta’ ewro li kull xahar il-Bank Ċentrali Ewropew baqa’ jippompja fl-ekonomija Ewropea bil-programm tiegħu ta’ “quantitative easing”. X’se jiġri issa?
BIDLA FIL-KLIMA
L-Ewropej għandhom raġun jinkwetaw bid-deċiżjoni tal-gvern Amerikan li jara kif joħroġ mill-ftehim internazzjonali “ta’ Pariġi” dwar ħarsien mill-bidla fil-klima. Wara l-falliment li spiċċaw fih in-negozjati ambjentali “ta’ Kyoto”, il-ftehim Pariġin bilfors jitqies bħala l-aħħar tarka li baqagħlna kontra l-ħsara tal-bidla li qed isseħħ fil-klima dinjija. Talanqas dil-ħaġa tgħodd għal min jemmen li tassew qed iseħħ dat-taħsir.
L-amministrazzjoni ta’ Donald Trump ma temminx. Ma tqisx li l-Istati Uniti għandhom juru xi leadership f’hekk.
L-Unjoni Ewropea qed tagħmel tajjeb li tara kif tista’ żżomm il-ftehim “ta’ Pariġi” għaddej, mingħajr l-Amerikani. Mhijiex ħaġa faċli.
Sadattant imma, saret ħaġa faċli tikkonvinċi ruħek – kif qed jiġrili jien, għalkemm bla ebda bażi xjentifika – li tassew il-klima qed tinbidel. Ma niftakarx… għalkemm il-memorja tista’ tkun imxellfa… li mal-Ewropa kważi kollha, qatt għaddejna minn sajf sħun daqs dan.
ELEZZJONIJIET PRIMARJI
L-idea li kandidat ta’ partit għall-aqwa karigi tal-istat jintgħażel permezz ta’ elezzjoni primarja fi ħdan il-partit jew is-segwaċi tiegħu hi mekkaniżmu Amerikan li hemm ħafna fhiex tfaħħru. Hu proċess demokratiku li jinvolvi l-kotra u jipprova jevita li jistrieħ għal ħatra jew oħra fuq kukkanji u klikek, kif ta’ spiss jiġri fil-politika.
Il-mudell xtered lejn l-Ewropa fejn qabad. Imma qed jagħmel il-ġid?
Żgur li le għal-lemin Franċiż, li bil-primarja nqabad b’kandidat li kellu difett kbir moħbi u ma setax jeħles minnu.
Fil-Partit Laburista Ingliż, mekkaniżmu li jixbah lil tal-primarji wassal biex Jeremy Corbyn ikun mexxej tal-partit. Jien naħseb li dik kienet għażla tajba ħafna, imma hemm min ma jaqbilx!
Imbagħad għandna l-primarja għaddejja fi ħdan il-PN f’Malta. Wieħed jista’ jiddubita kemm it-tul ta’ żmien li qed tieħu jista’ jkun ta’ ġid għall-istess partit.
English Version – Energy: cheap or pricey?
If I’m understanding well the medium term forecasts for energy prices, these will be trending towards a moderate increase. But the provision of energy comes from a wide range of products, from coal, to oil, wind, solar and nuclear. The price levels for each sector will not all be rising or falling in the same way.
The rate at which economic growth is rolling in Europe and other zones will help to confirm tendencies towards an increase in energy prices. This would not necessarily be an evil. During the last two years, within the EU, the complaint was that energy prices are not increasing as much as they should. The inflation rate needed to come closer to the annual 2 per cent set by the European Central bank in line with the provisions of the Stability and Growth Pact.
This goal was still not reached despite the billions of euros that the ECB kept pumping every month into the European economy via its quantitative easing programme. So what comes next?
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Climate change
Europeans are right to feel concern at the American government’s decision to exit the international Paris agreement on climate change. Following the failure of the Kyoto environmental negotiations, the Parisian accord cannot but be considered as the last security shield which we have available in order to face as we must, the damage triggered by world climate change. At least that’s how the problem is perceived by those who believe that climate deterioration is indeed happening.
The Donald Trump administration does not share the perception. It does not feel that the US needs to show any leadership on the matter.
The EU is doing well to try and keep the Paris agreement afloat without American participation. It’s not going to be easy.
But meanwhile it has become easy to convince oneself – as I am doing, though not on the basis of any scientific proof – that already the climate is really changing. I cannot remember… but my memory could be faulty on this one… that practically throughout all of Europe, summer was ever as hot as this year’s.
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Primaries
The idea that a party candidate for the top political position in the country should be chosen on the basis of a primary election inside the party, including all its adherents, is an American mechanism for which in its favour, one can find many arguments. It is a democratic process which maximises mass particiaption and tries to get around the underhand agreements and cliques that frequently drive political action.
The model has spread to Europe where it is taking root. But is it delivering?
Surely not for the French right, whose primary empowered a candidate burdened with a huge hidden flaw. And the right could not subsequently then dump him.
In the British Labour Party, a system close to that of the primaries opened the door for Jeremy Corbyn to become party leader. I happen to believe that it was a very good choice, but others disagree.
Then we have the primary being run in Malta by the PN. One could query whether its long drawn out timetabling is being beneficial to that party.
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